On the heels of the most deserving Baseball Hall of Fame induction class in years -- the Padres' Tony Gwynn and the Orioles' Cal Ripken -- there is a lot of uncertainty regarding future classes. Names that were once thrown around as sure-fire first-ballot guys are now uncertain, and other guys whom most fans never thought of as the best-of-the-best are under consideration.
Although anyone who's heard me talk about the Hall of Fame before will say I sound like a broken record, I repeat: There is a reason it isn't called the Hall of Accomplishment. Statistical benchmarks are the most often abused factors in deciding HoF induction, in my opinion. Stats play a part, but 3,000 hits, 500 home runs and 250 pitching wins does not a hall of famer make.
Here's my quick list of active or soon-to-be-eligible players who, in my mind, should or should not make the Hall of Fame. I'm only talking about guys who I believe are debatable; obviously I'm not going to waste time presenting a case for Alex Rodriguez.
Plaque-worthy (team he will be inducted as):
Derek Jeter, Yankees -- The ultimate example of stastical benchmarks being misleading. Jeter's a nice player statistically, with a lifetime .317 average, 191 home runs and 915 runs batted in. Some will try to argue he's a HoFer simply by winning, but I've never subscribed to that theory (after all, Dan Klecko has three Super Bowl rings. Does he belong in Canton?). Rather, if A-Rod stays a third baseman, Jeter will go down as the second-greatest shortstop of a stacked generation of shortstops (No. 1: Miguel Tejada).
Pedro Martinez, Red Sox -- The most dominant pitcher of the late 1990s, and that's that. The fact that Mussina, Schilling and David Wells trump him in key stats like career strikeouts and wins means nothing. From 1996 to 2004, if you had to win one game with one pitcher, who would you have chosen? Thought so.
Sammy Sosa, Cubs -- Really, truly on the bubble for most people, but not me. Eliminate benchmarks from the discussion and ask, who were the greatest outfielders of the 1990s to early 2000s? Bonds, Griffey, Sosa, Ramirez, Sheffield. At least the top three must go in. Or, throw in benchmarks, and guess what? No HoF that accepts Frank Thomas can not accept Sosa, period.
Manny Ramirez, Red Sox -- Few people realize this guy is still fairly young. Manny is 35 and although his production has slowed, he's got 6-8 good years left. As a designated hitter, he could be playing deep into his 40s. Not to mention that if this were 25 years ago, he could retire right now and make it on the first ballot.
John Smoltz, Braves -- In Smoltz's case, even the folks who are slaves to statistics will have to throw them out for him. 203 wins and 154 saves is nothing special compared to, say, Dennis Eckersley. Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux can have their 300 wins. If I'm a Braves fan, I'm thrilled Smoltz was the one we kept.
Non-plaque-worthy:
Craig Biggio, Astros -- For the billionth time, this guy is not HoF material. Sure, he's the active leader in hits, at-bats, and games played, but what does that mean? It took Biggio 20 years to get 3,000. That's an underwhelming 150 hits a season. By comparison, Roberto Clemente reached 3,000 in 17 years, and he was hardly Ty Cobb-esque; Clemente's lifetime average was a great-but-not outstanding .317.
Additionally, when you talked about the best second baseman, or catchers, or third baseman, or left fielders during Biggio's career, did his name ever enter the discussion? (Some folks note that Biggio was fourth and fifth in MVP voting in 1997 and '98. Big deal. Morgan Ensberg was fourth in MVP voting in 2005.) He played hard and was fun to watch, but that doesn't make him a HoFer.
Mike Mussina, Orioles -- Few people realize the statistical resume this guy has put together. Among active pitchers, he's fifth in wins (246), seventh in strikeouts (2,639) and seventh in inngs (3,316). Yet his run of dominance was short and included almost zero postseason success. If the 38 year old can hold on for 3-4 more full seasons, he might get 300 wins, but should that really alter his chances?
Frank Thomas, White Sox -- No frickin' way. Thomas is reportedly a nice guy, and shared the title as the most must-watch hitter of the early '90s with Bo Jackson, but injuries derailed a surefire HoF career. Solely among active players, many of whom are years younger, Thomas is way down at 13th in average (.302), 12th in hits (2,360), and while he's fifth in home runs, he's the oldest of the top 12, save Bonds, who parlayed his longevity into becoming the all-time home run king.
Omar Vizquel, Indians -- Vizquel is only 3-4 good years away from reaching 3,000 hits (he currently has 2,571 and will probably end the season around 2,600), and in today's day and age it's not far-fetched to believe the 40-year-old shortstop could be around that long. Still, if we're going to give a guy 25 years to reach 3,000, and still consider it noteworthy, is there any statute of limitations to when 3,000 isn't all that impressive? What about 3,000 hits in 30 seasons?
Jim Thome, Indians -- Like Thomas, Thome tantalized us with the long ball but hardley made his mark enough to make the hall. You talk about a one-trick pony, and Thome was it: 490 home runs, but a marginal hitter for average and not even a great run-producer. Somehow, in eight full seasons with those fearsome Indians lineups of the mid-'90s, Thome managed to only break the 110-RBI mark twice. Ugh.
Curt Schilling, Phillies/Diamondbacks/Red Sox -- An exceptional postseason pitcher and an exceptionally ho-hum HoF candidate. His 3,091 career strikeouts are really something, right? Well, not when you consider Pedro is only two Ks away from 3,000, and he's six years Schilling's junior. Similarly, Schilling only surpassed 17 wins in a season twice, and he's been around for 20 years. Remember, when considering statistics, also consider the context.
1 comment:
Well said.
Post a Comment